VNINDEX INDEX: A VIEW FROM QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Abstract

The financial strategy towards 2030 in Decision no. 368/QD-TTg enacted on 21/3/2022 by the Vietnam Prime Minister had set developmental goals for the stock market to become a channel to promote mid-and-long term capital raising for the economy, to continue changing the structure to be more appropriate for the monetary, the capital, the stock, and the bonds market. In the past two years, the stock market in Vietnam has manifested impressive growth. A prime example is the active growth of private investors. However, many challenges and loopholes still exist in the stock market. The stock market is a special market as the fluctuation of the VN-index index is affected by many factors including the expectations of the investor. When the market shows trends of increases in points then investors expect the next session to grow as well, leading to a rise in sales even for stocks with inflating costs, thus the VNindex will increase and vice versa. The structure of the econometric is utilized to assess the impacts of the VN-index of the previous month on the index of the following month on the Vietnamese stock market in the period from January 2019 to May 2022. The conclusion of the quantitative analysis shows that if the VN-index of the previous month increases by 1% then the VNindex of the following month will increase by 0.965% or vice versa. From the results of the analysis, the research team has proposed a few discussion points intending to stabilize the stock market in the upcoming time and develop the market according to the financial strategy towards 2030 in Decision no. 368/QD-TTg by the Vietnam Prime Minister