THE EFFECT OF BRAIN DRAIN ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study examines the impact of brain drain on economic development using secondary data from 1981 to 2023, sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and United Nations- World Population Prospects. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique was employed following diagnostic tests, which confirmed that four variables were stationary at first difference while one was stationary at levels. The empirical findings indicate that brain drain (BD) exhibited varying effects on HDI in both the short-run and long-run periods. However, Brain Drain contribution to economic development was minimal or negligible.  Remittances were positive and significant in the long run meaning that it contributed to economic development in the long run. Similarly, unemployment (UNEM) deviated from a priori expectations in both the short-run and long-run periods, except at the first and third-period lags. Government expenditure on human capital exhibited fluctuating effects over time but became significant in the long run, highlighting its potential role in mitigating the negative consequences of brain drain. Based on these findings, the study recommends that government should increase investment in human capital development to counteract the adverse effects of brain drain. The logic from the work is that the negative effect of Brain Drain is offset by the positive effect of remittances that the migrated labour force sends back to the country; indicating that Brain Drain through a pass-through (remittances) contributes positively to economic development of Nigeria. Thus, government needs to intensify Human Capital Development to raise more labour force for the market.