Assessing Climate Change Sensitivity and Adaptation Practices of Large and Small Farms: A Case Study from Northern Nigeria

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Climate change is recognized by today’s world as the most important environmental problem affecting humanity. It refers to a serious and continuous change in weather pattern. It is largely attributed to the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and water vapor by humans. This led to extreme and violent weather events which manifest as warmer temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, floods and cyclones (Robinson, 2024). One of the most vulnerable sector is agriculture. Findings from many studies showed evidence of rise in temperature and changes in the intensity of rainfall across Nigeria (Chiaka et. al., 2022; Farauta et. Al., 2011). It was forecasted that temperature will rise by 1.5 0C to 2.5 0C in the 21st century and there will be a general slight increase in rainfall across different parts of the country. In the current scenario most part of northern Nigeria which is arid is characterized by high temperature, low rainfall and water shortage, scanty vegetation and marginal land.

Although the region has vast land and holds great potential for agriculture, its geographical location makes the area more vulnerable to the impact of climate change and poses a serious threat to food production (Moses- ojo et. al., 2023).

Agriculture is the dominant sector in the Nigerian economy; it contributes 25.59% to GDP in 2024 and employs a significant percentage of the labor force. It is the main source of food and raw materials in the country. However, agriculture in Nigeria like many African countries is vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Estimate of damage from scientific studies due to the impact of climate change on agriculture for Nigeria was projected to reach up to 1.5% to 3% of GDP each year by 2030; it will also lower crop yield by 5% to 25% by 2050 (Bosello et. al., 2013; Bello et. al., 2012). Other important changes are also affecting the agricultural environment and will certainly continue to 2050 unless successfully addressed. The impacts of climate change worsen pre-existing social inequalities specifically for farmers who are more vulnerable because of limited access to resources and because their livelihood depends on agriculture and natural resources, which are highly susceptible to climate variability (Amos et. al., 2021; Chimi et. al., 2022).

To lessen the adverse impacts of climate change, local farmers have to adjust to harsh weather conditions and have already developed coping strategies over time. If Nigeria is to meet the challenge of feeding an additional 1.6 billion people by 2050, an integrated approach to addressing climatic changes that have negative impacts in the agricultural environment is essential. It is imperative that smallholder farmers who produced the bulk of the food in Nigeria adapt their farming practices to help negate these and other projected negative impacts (Mathieu et. al., 2024). The uptake of these innovative practices and technologies, nonetheless, depends on individual characteristics, inequalities in household capital endowment and access to rural services including climate and agricultural information as well as gender. The main variables used for the analysis of the study were divided into climate variables, which include temperature and rainfall, and the non- climate variables which are soil, relevant socio economic variables.