FERTILITY AND POPULATION EXPLOSION IN NIGERIA: DOES INCOME ACTUALLY COUNT?
Abstract
In Nigeria, this study examined whether income matters in the influence of fertility on population growth from 1961 to 2020. Going specific, we inquired into the influence of fertility and income growth on population growth; the influence of fertility and income growth on birth rate; and the causal linkages between population growth, fertility, birth rate, life expectancy, and income growth. From the ‘Granger Causality test, no causality exists between income growth and population growth; but a one-way causality runs from population growth to birth rate. In the ‘ordinary least squares’ regression utilized in the study, we realized that income does not have any significant influence on population growth and birth rate; but fertility rate and life expectancy at birth wielded a direct and substantial effect on population growth. A 1% increase in fertility and life expectancy increased population growth by 0.4823% and 0.0615% on average and explains about 75.86% of the total variation in population growth. The bounds test shows that no long-run rapport exists between fertility and birth rate. The short-run estimates indicated changes in fertility wielded a positive and significant sway on birth rate, while life expectancy wielded a negative and significant sway on the birth rate. Still, income does not exert any significant influence on the birth rate. The policy implication of these findings is that to curtail population bang, there is a necessity to reduce the birth rate. This is because income does not play any significant role in the demand for children in Nigeria.
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