Forecasting the Contribution Agricultural Sector on the Gross Domestic Product, Sudan
Abstract
The objective of this study was to forecast the contribution of the Sudanese agricultural sector on the country GDP for the period (2023- 2038). Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model with statistical time series modeling technique was used in the analysis. The research depended mainly on secondary data which was collected from different relevant sources. Results showed that ARIMA (1,0,0) was the best model because there is a noticeable agreement between the observed and expected forecasted values and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was found to be 18.8. Result also revealed that, the forecasted value for the year 203.
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References
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Reports:
Ministry of Finance and National Economy - Annual Reports
Central Bureau of Statistics and Information – Sudan
Central Bank of Sudan - annual reports during the period (1960 - 2022)
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